Bonds Rally as Fed Meeting Looms Today
March 20, 2026
Mortgage bonds are experiencing a notable rally today, Wednesday, March 18, 2026, with MBS showing strong gains that are improving pricing conditions. This movement comes amid optimism over falling oil prices and anticipation for the Federal Reserve's key announcements later today. Homebuyers and refinancers should stay tuned as volatility could influence rate trends significantly.
The bond market is rallying ahead of the pivotal Fed day, with MBS up significantly in recent sessions, driving mortgage rates down from recent levels. Late gains have been fueled by rising stocks, oil dynamics, and hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening, offsetting prior sell-offs. Today's FOMC meeting, including the statement, dot plot, and Powell's presser, takes center stage, alongside key inflation data like PPI. Volatility is expected to drive big swings, reshaping rate cut expectations. Float/lock guidance recommends locking 7- and 15-day pipelines while floating 30 days and beyond.
Improving mortgage pricing amid the bond rally is easing affordability pressures for potential borrowers. With rates trending downward today, monthly payments are becoming more manageable compared to recent highs. This shift could encourage sidelined buyers to re-enter the market as financing costs soften. However, ongoing uncertainty around Fed policy may keep affordability volatile in the near term. Borrowers should monitor these developments closely for optimal timing.
For homebuyers, today's rally presents a window to lock in better terms before potential post-Fed volatility. Sellers may see increased buyer interest if rates continue to improve, helping move inventory faster. Refinancers with existing higher-rate loans could benefit from acting soon on the downward trend. Both buyers and sellers should weigh float/lock advice carefully given the 30-day float recommendation for longer pipelines. Consulting a loan officer now can help navigate these opportunities effectively.
The mortgage market is buoyed by a bond rally as the Fed meeting unfolds today, offering potential relief on rates. While volatility persists, strategic timing could yield advantages for borrowers. Stay informed to capitalize on these shifts.